Georgia should avoid premature conclusions about the causes of two large-scale electricity outages recorded on July 24 and 25, according to energy expert and former Energy Minister Davit Mirtskhulava.
The first nationwide outage began shortly after midnight on July 24. Georgian State Electrosystem restored power in stages and later confirmed that supply had been fully restored across the country.
A second large-scale interruption occurred on the morning of July 25. At the time of the available official statements, the precise causes of the two incidents had not been publicly established.
A credible diagnosis will take time
Mirtskhulava said large power-system failures cannot be reliably explained immediately after an incident.
Preparing a qualified conclusion requires the collection and comparison of significant volumes of technical information, he said. This includes records from transmission and distribution operators, generating facilities, control systems and protection equipment.
According to Mirtskhulava, investigators would need to examine SCADA and energy-management-system records, relay-protection activity, emergency recordings, voltage and frequency data, and the precise sequence in which events occurred.
Synchronising these records into one accurate timeline is itself a substantial technical task, he said.
Interim report could reduce speculation
Mirtskhulava proposed a two-stage communication process.
An interim report could present established facts, the sequence of events and the next stages of the investigation within several weeks. A final report would follow after the technical analysis had been completed.
He argued that this approach could improve public confidence while avoiding unsupported conclusions about the causes or responsibility for the outages.
Mirtskhulava pointed to previous international blackout investigations that required several months to complete. The exact duration differed by event, but his broader point was that major system failures usually require structured and time-consuming analysis.
Technical and legal investigations should remain distinct
GNERC has announced that it will investigate the large-scale outage and has been granted access to relevant company data and information.
The State Security Service also opened a separate investigation under Article 318 of Georgia’s Criminal Code following the two interruptions.
The opening of that investigation does not establish that sabotage occurred. As of the latest publicly available information, Georgian authorities had not announced a confirmed cause for the outages.
Mirtskhulava said technical and legal investigations should follow separate procedures.
The technical review should concentrate on determining what happened and preventing a recurrence. Any legal or regulatory process would separately examine whether particular companies or individuals carried responsibility.
He argued that separating the two processes would make it easier for operators, power plants and other participants to provide investigators with complete technical information.
Independent experts proposed
Mirtskhulava suggested that international specialists should participate in the technical investigation.
External experts without a direct connection to the affected organisations could strengthen the credibility and perceived independence of the final conclusions, he said.
The review should examine whether the system met the N-1 reliability criterion, under which the loss of one major network element should not cause wider system failure.
It should also assess the performance of relay protection, emergency automation, dispatch management and the process used to restore the system after the outages.
Reliability affects renewable-energy expansion
Mirtskhulava said the outages should also lead to a broader examination of Georgia’s power-system resilience.
His proposed priorities include modernising grid-monitoring systems, strengthening reserve and balancing capacity, regularly testing black-start plans and improving cybersecurity.
He also called for greater attention to voltage and reactive-power control as Georgia adds more hydropower, solar and wind generation.
Battery storage, flexible reservoir hydropower and sufficient operating reserves could help the system manage changes in electricity generation and demand, according to his recommendations.
These questions are relevant beyond the two July incidents.
Georgia plans to add substantially more renewable generation and strengthen its role in regional electricity trade. A reliable transmission and dispatch system will be necessary to integrate those projects and support future cross-border connections.
The immediate priority, however, remains establishing the facts behind the July outages through a technically credible and transparent investigation.
This article is based on comments by Davit Mirtskhulava published by BM.GE and on statements by Georgian State Electrosystem, GNERC and the State Security Service.