Georgia’s electricity system had a strong renewable month in September. Hydropower generation increased, imports fell sharply and renewables supplied more than three-quarters of total electricity supply.

Yet the latest data also point to a more difficult underlying question: how should Georgia develop new renewable capacity when the system can already have more electricity than it can absorb, export or store during parts of the year?

Galt & Taggart estimates that around 0.5 TWh of generation was curtailed during May–July 2026. Its conclusion is clear: policy support should increasingly reflect when and how a project generates, rather than treating every new megawatt as equally valuable.

A renewable-heavy September

Domestic electricity consumption reached 1.1 TWh in September, up 1.5% year on year. Favourable hydrological conditions lifted hydropower generation by 8.3%, despite technical disruptions at Enguri HPP.

Renewables accounted for 77.5% of total electricity supply, compared with 71.9% in September last year. Higher domestic renewable generation reduced the role of both thermal power and imports: thermal generation fell 15.4% year on year, while imports declined by 68.4%.

This is the positive side of Georgia’s hydro-based system. When water availability is strong and demand is moderate, the country can meet a very large share of its needs from renewable generation.

Solar is already changing the demand picture

The official consumption figures do not tell the whole story.

Galt & Taggart estimates that electricity demand actually grew by 3.3% in September, rather than the 1.5% recorded in official statistics, once generation from net-metered systems is taken into account.

That distinction matters. Distributed solar reduces the electricity a customer draws from the grid, but it does not mean that the customer’s underlying activity or energy needs have disappeared. As more businesses install rooftop systems, conventional grid-consumption statistics will become a less complete measure of real electricity demand.

For policymakers and network planners, this makes better visibility of distributed generation increasingly important.

Surplus power still needs a buyer

The challenge becomes clearer when looking at the first nine months of the year.

Electricity consumption increased 2.6% year on year to 10.9 TWh. But exports of Georgian electricity to Türkiye fell 51.1%, reflecting lower electricity prices and higher domestic generation in the Turkish market. Total demand for Georgian electricity—including exports—therefore declined by 0.2%.

This is an important reminder that cross-border infrastructure does not automatically guarantee a market for surplus generation. Export opportunities depend on prices, demand and competing generation in neighbouring systems at the precise moment Georgia has electricity available to sell.

During May–July, low domestic demand contributed to estimated curtailments of around 0.5 TWh. In a system that relies heavily on seasonal hydropower, new wind and solar projects will add value most easily when their output complements the system’s needs rather than deepening an existing surplus.

From capacity targets to system value

In the first nine months of 2026, renewables met 74.2% of Georgia’s electricity demand. Imports and thermal generation, fuelled by imported natural gas, supplied the remaining 25.8%.

The figures show why additional renewable capacity remains necessary, particularly for winter security and long-term demand growth. But they also show why capacity targets alone are not enough.

Galt & Taggart argues that investment support should prioritise projects according to their generation profile and contribution to system reliability. In practical terms, this means that future CfD terms and tariffs may need to differentiate between projects based on factors such as seasonal output, location, grid constraints, flexibility and their ability to reduce dependence on imports.

That would be a shift from asking only, “How many megawatts can Georgia build?” to asking a more useful question: “Which projects produce the electricity the system most needs, when it most needs it?”

For developers, lenders and policymakers, that distinction will increasingly shape the quality—not simply the size—of Georgia’s renewable-energy pipeline.

Source note: This article is based on Galt & Taggart’s Electricity Market Watch – September 2026, published on 20 October 2026. Unless otherwise stated, all figures below are drawn from that report.